Jaguars Insider: If own free agents hit market, expect them to depart

Using the last four off-seasons as a barometer, Thursday is The Day for the Jaguars’ unrestricted free agents returning to the team.

If allowed by the Jaguars to hit the open market, the overwhelming evidence is they won’t be re-signed.

Granted, Tom Coughlin’s arrival as football operations chief may change the Jaguars’ strategy, but all we have is general manager Dave Caldwell’s data.

2013: Re-signed only cornerback Antwaun Molden, center Brad Meester and receiver Jordan Shipley after the market opened.

2014: Re-signed only cornerback Will Blackmon and defensive end Jason Babin.

2015: None.

2016: None.

The front office and coaching staff have spent the last two months evaluating their roster and deciding who stays (isn’t cut), who goes (who’s released or traded) and who should be re-signed (and at what price).

It was telling last week in Indianapolis that Caldwell predicted cornerback Prince Amukamara, strong safety Johnathan Cyprien and defensive lineman Tyson Alualu would hit the market. Caldwell’s usual go-to line is something like, “We’re talking to them and hope to re-sign them before free agency.”

For all we know, the Jaguars might have already decided to move on from all of their free agents.

The negotiating period with the representation of other teams’ free agents begins Tuesday. Here’s a look at the top five Jaguars free agents:

CB PRINCE AMUKAMARA

Playing on a one-year contract after his first trip into free agency didn’t produce a multi-season offer, Amukamara was the Jaguars’ No. 2 corner (871 of 1,075 snaps), missing two games with a hamstring injury sustained in the opener. He missed only one tackle and had six pass break-ups, but no interceptions. When targeting him in coverage, quarterbacks were 41-of-69 passing for 531 yards and two touchdowns (93.3 rating) against Amukamara.

Why he stays: The Jaguars don’t have a No. 2 cornerback under contract. Plus, Amukamara, despite not posting a takeaway, brings a veteran savvy to the field – he understands routes and angles and knows how to, um, interfere with a receiver without getting called for it.

Why he goes: Amukamara would move on if the Jaguars sign Houston’s A.J. Bouye or Buffalo’s Stephon Gilmore. The Jaguars would cite the ball skills of Bouye (32 pass break-ups in 50 games) and Gilmore (62 PBUs in 68 games) as the reason for needing an upgrade.

SS JOHNATHAN CYPRIEN

A starter since he was drafted in the second round in 2013, Cyprien was second on the Jaguars last year with 126 tackles. He missed 10 tackles and when targeting him in coverage, quarterbacks were 20 of 38 for 249 yards, one touchdown and an 82.0 rating. He had five pass break-ups and no interceptions. All in all, though, Cyprien had a better 2016 than 2015.

Why he stays: Three reasons – the Jaguars feel the free-agent class – led by Arizona’s Tony Jefferson – doesn’t represent an upgrade, Cyprien wants to stay in his home state and defensive coordinator Todd Wash believes his scheme should continue to include a strong safety close to the line of scrimmage.

Why he goes: Some team – and it only takes one – makes a higher-than-expected offer ($7 million per-year average?), a figure the Jaguars are unwilling to play and they shift their focus toward in-house options James Sample and Jarrod Wilson and the draft.

DL TYSON ALUALU

The Jaguars’ second-longest tenured player (2010, behind only tight end Marcedes Lewis – 2006), Alualu has never missed a game because of injury; he was a healthy scratch in last year’s first two games. He started 10 games and made 36 tackles (six for lost yardage) and 2 1/2 sacks. He played 509 snaps on defense and 11 on offense.

Why he stays: The Jaguars need to re-build their depth at strong-side defensive end because Jared Odrick was cut last month and Yannick Ngakoue and Dante Fowler are “rush” ends only. Internally, there is optimism about 2016 seventh-round pick Jonathan Woodard, but he hasn’t so much as practiced in pads yet (Achilles injury last May). Also, Alualu can play defensive tackle if called upon.

Why he goes: The Jaguars think Woodard is good enough to feel he’s a rotation player and then land Arizona’s Calais Campbell. The guess is even if they sign Campbell, the Jaguars will re-up Alualu.

G LUKE JOECKEL

The No. 2 overall pick in 2013, Joeckel was supposed to lock down the left tackle spot for years. It didn’t happen and he was moved to left guard last training camp. He played 221 snaps before tearing his ACL against Indianapolis in London.

Why he stays: Joeckel is unlikely to be ready for any part of the off-season program so he may choose a short-term deal (one year plus a team option in 2018) if offered by the Jaguars and get in the mix to play left guard if they can’t sign one of the big free agents.

Why he goes: There isn’t a spot for him after the Jaguars sign guard like Kevin Zeitler this week or Joeckel wants a change of scenery and signs with a team that will at least entertain him competing at offensive tackle.

G PATRICK OMAMEH

Signed late in the off-season (June 2), Omameh became the left guard after Joeckel’s injury. Omameh started six games before a foot injury ended his year Nov. 20 at Detroit. In 453 snaps, Omameh allowed 1 1/2 sacks and nine quarterback pressures/hits and was booked for only two “bad” run plays.

Why he stays: The Jaguars are unwilling to splurge on a high-priced guard and re-sign Omameh to compete with Chris Reed and a to-be-determined draft pick. Favoring Omameh is that he was serviceable when on the field last year, maybe good enough to get a chance this year.

Why he goes: The Jaguars sign Zeitler or another guard this week.

Other unrestricted free agents: Receiver Bryan Walters, left tackle Kelvin Beachum, defensive tackle Jordan Hill and tailback Denard Robinson.