Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Five Heisman Trophy bets to make right now

CJ Stroud

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud, left, hands off to running back Miyan Williams during an NCAA college football practice in Columbus, Ohio, Monday, April 5, 2021.

By the time most of the preseason action comes in on the Heisman Trophy future odds at local sports books, the value will be gone.

Many bettors will wait until next month, right before the college football season kicks off, to wedge in a bet or two on the sport’s most prestigious award. That’s likely a mistake, as the market will be more settled with fairer prices on everyone by then.

Odds have already shifted, drastically in some cases, in the last month since most books unveiled their Heisman numbers. It’s better to get in now and pick off some bargains.

Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith won as a longshot choice last season, but that required a confluence of events unlikely to repeat any time soon. It’s more or less a quarterback’s award now, with passers having gotten the nod in nine of the last 11 years.

So, I’m going to focus my Heisman portfolio around high-upside quarterbacks this year. Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler, Alabama’s Bryce Young and Clemson’s D.J. Uiaglelei are the consensus favorites going into this season but there are better deals to be found further down the board.

Here are the five Heisman Trophy bets worth making right now after sweeping every local sports book for the best prices.

C.J. Stroud, Ohio State quarterback 16-to-1 (William Hill)

Unlike the blueblood teams surrounding the aforementioned big three Heisman favorites, two other national championship contenders are stocked with virtually everyone back at the skill positions. That’s where I’m starting this year’s group of bets.

No team in the nation has a better one-two punch at receiver than the Buckeyes with both Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson returning. Throw in tight end Jeremy Ruckert and running back Master Teague, and the freshman Stroud has an embarrassment of riches around him.

Ohio State also has a forgiving schedule — certainly relative to the slates of other top teams — that currently has them at least a double-digit favorite in every game. Stroud was a late riser in the recruiting ranks out of Rancho Cucamonga, Calif., two years ago but eventually surpassed every quarterback except Young and Uiagalelei.

He showed so much potential late that there were some rumblings that he could eventually wind up the best of the three. With the advantages in his corner this season, that day may come sooner than expected.

JT Daniels, Georgia quarterback 25-to-1 (Golden Nugget)

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Georgia's JT Daniels speaks to reporters during the NCAA college football Southeastern Conference Media Days Tuesday, July 20, 2021, in Hoover, Ala.

Once Georgia coach Kirby Smart finally put in the former five-star USC recruit last season, he looked unstoppable. Daniels threw for 10.3 yards per attempt as the Bulldogs put up big offensive numbers in their final four games to end the season.

Georgia brings back its top seven receivers — though star George Pickens did tear his ACL in spring practice — to potentially make Daniels the only quarterback with more proven surrounding talent than Stroud. It takes a slight leap of faith to back a Georgia quarterback given how uninventive the offense has looked during Smart’s tenure, but this could be the year that changes.

Smart wisely hired Todd Monken to take offensive-coordinator duties before last season, but the totality of his plans and system were never seen in the first year after presumed starter Jamie Newman opted out of the season.

I’ve already bet and picked Georgia to win the national title, and if that’s going to happen, then it’s going to have come behind a huge year by Daniels.

Matt Corral, Ole Miss quarterback 40-to-1 (STN Sports)

Corral’s candidacy may hinge on defense. As long as the sophomore stays healthy, coach Lane Kiffin’s high-octane offense is going to lead him to big enough numbers to merit Heisman consideration.

It just won’t get very far if the team sputters to another .500 record behind one of the nation’s most inefficient defenses. That’s what happened last year, as Ole Miss ranked 124th in the nation in defense by EPA (expected points added).

Almost all the same players are back, but the hope is their experience and a year of seasoning can at least help inch the defense towards respectability.

There’s no denying how electric Corral was last season. He’s one of only two returning Power Five conference quarterbacks who averaged more than 10 yards per pass with enough attempts to qualify for NCAA leaderboards.

North Carolina’s Sam Howell is other, as Daniels didn’t meet the minimums. Corral doesn’t deserve to be among the Heisman favorites, but he should solidly sit in the second tier.

These odds should be cut in half.

Hudson Card, Texas quarterback 80-to-1 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Casey Thompson is the Longhorns’ quarterback who sits near the top of the board at as low as 20-to-1, but new coach Steve Sarkisian rarely mentions his name without also talking up Card in the same sentence.

This seems like a true quarterback competition going into the season, and the freshman Card may even have a small leg-up given that he’s considered to have a higher ceiling. Whoever wins the job is going to be set up to succeed immediately.

Sarkisian was the best play-caller in the nation bar none last year with Alabama. Texas is also Georgia/Ohio State Lite with the players they have back at the skill positions including freshman running back sensation Bijan Robinson, who could be more involved in the passing game this year.

Joshua Moore, Jake Smith and Xavier Worthy, meanwhile, make up a formidable receiving corps. It’s not a great development for all the punchlines that are fun to throw towards a struggling perennial power, but Texas is going to be good this year and Card might be a big part of it.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA quarterback 200-to-1 (SuperBook)

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UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (1) walks off the field before an NCAA college football game between UCLA and Stanford Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, in Pasadena, Calif.

The Pac-12 is wide open this year, and UCLA could be a surprise team in the thick of the race largely because of its roster continuity.

That roster continuity starts with the Bishop Gorman High graduate Thompson-Robinson, who will settle into his fourth year as a starter under Chip Kelly. Thompson-Robinson has improved in each of his first three seasons and is on a path to do so again this season.

He’s extremely dangerous as a runner in the open field, which could give him some of the type of Heisman moments voters love during a slate of what look like close conference games for the Bruins.

Thompson-Robinson hasn’t flashed much Heisman potential during a down period for UCLA since Kelly took over, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. The chances of it happening are certainly better than these odds imply.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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