Week 11 NFL picks straight up: Rams overpower Chiefs; Falcons blow out Cowboys

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The NFL really doesn't deserve to get this lucky. The league usually deserves what it got this past Monday night and the previous Thursday night: lousy teams paired in prime time, trying to justify the spotlight that randomly fell on them.

This week, they get a Super Bowl preview on a Monday night. Chiefs vs. Rams, with identical 9-1 records and losses they should hardly be ashamed of or be asked to apologize for. The Chiefs in New England on a last-second, Tom Brady-led drive? The Rams in the Superdome with Drew Brees in full video-game mode?

Everybody should want this to be a preview of Atlanta in February — a Chiefs franchise that has not gone that far in 49 years, and a Rams team that hasn’t carried the banner of LA into the big one in 39 years? Never mind the constellation of stars on the current teams: The ghosts converging on the site will eat up the two-week prelude in one swallow.

Until then, though, enjoy Monday night.

MORE NFL PREDICTIONS:
Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Week 11 NFL picks, predictions

(All times ET)

Green Bay Packers (4-4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-5)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m., Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime

For all their weaknesses, the Packers are right smack in the middle of the playoff race and the NFC North battle. The Seahawks are left to fight for a wild-card berth, and it’s uphill for them after the aggravatingly close, last-possession losses to the two LA teams over the last two weeks. The Aaron Rodgers-Russell Wilson NFC title game classic, a Seahawks overtime win, seems like a lot longer than four years ago. The Fail Mary, two years earlier, feels a lot more recent.

Prediction: Seahawks, 33-28

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Baltimore Ravens (4-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

The Joe Flacco health watch is in full force. Keep in mind, though, that even if he has to miss this game and Lamar Jackson steps in, it’s not necessarily permanent; expect the Ravens to ride Flacco to the bitter end, of possibly his time there and that of John Harbaugh and Ozzie Newsome. This week, though, avenging an earlier loss in Cincinnati and staying in contention is paramount. The Bengals are starting to Bengal. Contrary to popular belief, the return of a coach under whom they had relative success (Hue Jackson) is not a sign of their doom.

Prediction: Ravens, 20-16

MORE: NFL power rankings for Week 11

Houston Texans (6-3) at Washington Redskins (6-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

The two head-scratching-est division leaders so far face each other at FedEx Field, where the fans have every reason not to buy in yet, no matter what their thin-skinned players say. Division titles by default still count in both cases. The Texans have won six straight, are coming off a bye and needed the rest for Deshaun Watson and the rest of the beaten-up players. For Washington, a repeat of the four-turnover defensive performance in Tampa would be welcome, because they might not be able to count on their offense.

Prediction: Texans, 23-17

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

The Jaguars have been spoiling rematches and must-see games on their schedule all season, including the Eagles in London and the Colts last week. This is the biggest letdown yet, though: The Steelers should be showing up with bile to spare after the regular-season and playoff beatdowns last year. Instead, they’ll show up either with Le’Veon Bell and keep the Jaguars in the pits, or without Le’Veon Bell and keep them in the pits.

Prediction: Steelers, 35-20

Dallas Cowboys (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

Last year, the Falcons abused a Cowboys line missing Tyron Smith and sacked Dak Prescott eight times. It’s been speculated that Prescott has not been the same since. The season-saving win in Philadelphia last week still didn’t silence that doubt. The Falcons, meanwhile, tossed away much of the momentum of their three-game win streak with an ugly loss in Cleveland last week. Matt Ryan is having a spectacular season under the circumstances. That should pick up where it left off.

Prediction: Falcons, 33-18

Carolina Panthers (6-3) at Detroit Lions (3-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

The Lions can’t protect Matthew Stafford anymore, have no one reliable for him to throw to anymore, and can’t stop anyone on defense, at least not lately. The defense problem is more troublesome; even after getting run out of Pittsburgh last Thursday, Cam Newton and all his weapons are capable of striking fast and striking often. Many are now preaching patience with Matt Patricia, as if the Lions didn’t run off Jim Caldwell after a 9-7 season.

Prediction: Panthers, 37-17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) at New York Giants (2-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

The schedule is kind to the Giants suddenly; they follow the Monday night comeback win over the 49ers with a home game against a Bucs team that’s lost six of seven after a 2-0, Fitzmagic-led start. If the Giants have, indeed, figured out a way to protect Eli Manning better (they couldn’t have done it worse), they’ll have a chance to put up points, especially on this defense.

Prediction: Giants, 23-19

Tennessee Titans (5-4) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

There are more than a few reasons to get absorbed in this game: Marcus Mariota vs. Andrew Luck, Mike Vrabel vs. Frank Reich, two teams turning things around after bad in-season stretches, a three-way division race in which the loser will find itself in significant trouble. Fun stat: Luck has thrown the second-most pass attempts per game in the NFL, and among regular starters, Mariota has thrown the fewest. Appreciate the variety of styles.

Prediction: Titans, 29-28 

Denver Broncos (3-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-2)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS

More proof that it’s now how you start, it’s how you finish: Like the Bucs, the Broncos started 2-0 and have lost six of seven since. Just as the Chargers are lurking just off the radar overall, Philip Rivers is building a stealth MVP case. The Broncos are among the league leaders in finding creative ways to lose, which has only planted Vance Joseph more firmly on the hot seat.

Prediction: Chargers, 28-23

Oakland Raiders (1-8) at Arizona Cardinals (2-7)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS

This matchup is so bad, it’s a wonder it isn't on national TV. Derek Carr threw the ball away on fourth down last week, and a gushing pre-draft evaluation of Nathan Peterman by Jon Gruden was uncovered soon after. As for the Cardinals, David Johnson is getting involved the way he should have been earlier this season, Larry Fitzgerald is solidifying his Canton resume, and the results remain the same.

Prediction: Cardinals, 27-13

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at New Orleans Saints (8-1)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox

It’s getting late for the Eagles; that loss to the Cowboys brought the Philly back out in Philly’s fans. If they can incorporate Golden Tate better this week and the rest of the season, it can still be saved. The Saints could still hit a wall before season's end, but the odds of it happening at home, and against a team that’s struggling to make things click the way they did last year, are slim.

Prediction: Saints, 37-20

NFL PLAYOFF PICTURE:
Chiefs, Steelers match 1-2 punch of Rams, Saints

Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1) at Chicago Bears (6-3)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC

A good ol’ fashioned, rock-em sock-em, Black and Blue Division slugfest … featuring a pair of quarterbacks in Kirk Cousins and Mitchell Trubisky who are airing it out most weeks, without many other options. The winner claims the lead in the NFC North with six weeks to play. The wild card is the Vikings’ defense, which got Eversen Griffin back and, before their bye, got 10 sacks and gave up just 209 yards to the Lions.

Prediction: Bears, 26-24

Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams (9-1) in Mexico City

Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN

This is what everyone’s been waiting for since late September, when they both looked unbeatable. They’ve both lost, but the Chiefs still look more unbeatable with an offense that keeps overcoming their defense’s obvious shortcomings. The Rams’ defense has shown its flaws in recent weeks, too. It comes down to which defense can be trusted more, for the whole game or for any given make-or-break play. That one’s easy — the Rams. Until they prove otherwise, that is.

Prediction: Rams, 38-34

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