Promotion within touching distance but Offaly must attack win in Ennis

OFFALY senior football managers Declan Kelly and Mickey Harte will be on the highest state of alert for any signs of complacency ahead of the final group game in the National Football League Division 3 on Sunday.

Last Sunday's heart warming 2-17 to 0-17 win over Kildare has put Offaly on the verge of promotion but they need to thread very carefully and make sure of it now against Clare in Ennis.

With ten points from six games and one round to go, Offaly are two points ahead of Kildare and Clare. If Clare win and Kildare beat Antrim, three teams will tie on ten points and scoring difference will decide.

It has been confirmed that scoring difference applies from all the games in the group and Offaly are in a very good position. If this scenario does happen, Kildare will go up as their scoring difference is +48 points. Offaly's is 21 points better than Clare and while it means that anything less than an eleven point defeat will put them up, that would be a lethally dangerous attitude to go out with.

The key for Offaly is to go out with the same attitude that they did against Kildare last Sunday, to get into the pace of the game very quickly, attack it with real venom and to go out to win. They will have to be absolutely tuned in and while there is no way they should lose by eleven points, there are high scores in football under the new rules and with two pointers, it is very easy for a game to get away from a team.

Offaly have shown in the past that they are capable of real horror shows. The memory of last year's Tailteann Cup defeats by London and Limerick, are still brutally painful for supporters while they flirted with disaster against Fermanagh and Leitrim in the league this year.

At half time in Fermanagh, Offaly looked to be heading to a bad beating when they trailed after playing with the wind and they did very well to get back into it. They would have got a point but for one clearly wrong refereeing decision when they were penalised for not having three men forward late on and a more questionable one when Keith O'Neill looked to have been pushed in injury time but no free was given.

A point there would have put Offaly up while they also danced with danger in their win over Leitrim, starting poorly and having to work very hard for a four point win. Leitrim gave a great effort that day but have now conceded a walkover to Fermanagh and have come in for a lot of deserved criticism for that.

They had struggled earlier in the league and Clare beat them by 13 points back in February. Only for the scale of that win, their prospects would be significantly less on Sunday. As things stand, it would take a calamity for Offaly to suffer an eleven point defeat but these things do happen in football.

All the money will be on Offaly and Kildare being promoted. A win over Antrim in Newbridge will be enough for Kildare and while that is not guaranteed on current form, they should be able to manage it.

Fermanagh are not out of the equation but their chances are slim. They are on seven points and have to beat Laois at home. They then need Offaly and Antrim to win and their fate is very much out of their hands. Laois can get to eight points as well if they beat Fermanagh but they won't be going up – their only hope is a three way tie with Clare and Kildare on eight points but they won't be bridging the 37 points scoring difference between them and Kildare.

Offaly, however, are very much in control of their own destiny and are thrilled to be in this position. They have had a very good league game, starting very well with wins over Sligo and Laois and beating Antrim comfortably before hitting that road block against Fermanagh. The performance against Leitrim raised further questions but Offaly answered them most impressively against Kildare last Sunday.

Apart from the Fermanagh and Leitrim games, they have played some great attacking football and the new rules are clearly suiting their light, fast players. They have had a great work ethic, their defensive play has been excellent and their ability to break at lightening pace from deep has opened up most opponents.

Offaly have also done this with injuries to key players. David Dempsey, Diarmuid Egan and Ruari McNamee were playing very well in the opening games but have missed the last few with hamstring injuries and it is not expected that any of them will be back this Sunday, though they are not far away.

Those absentees have created opportunities for others with Daire McDaid having an outstanding game in defence last Sunday. Shane Tierney is another who has taken full advantage to secure a consistent starting places and his energy and movement has impressed supporters.

Many of the 2021 All-Ireland U20 football champions are now finding their way at intercounty level. The Edenderry duo Lee Pearson and Rory Egan have found their best form again in defence while Cormac Egan, John Furlong, Cathal Flynn and Keith O'Neill have been excellent. Jack Bryant, sensational in 2021, doesn't have the same pace as some of those players but his value to the team is considerable – a very intelligent footballer, he had a very solid game against Kildare after being left off the starting fifteen against Leitrim.

There are many others performing at a high level. Aidan Bracken has returned from injury and is a big help in defence while Jordan Hayes has been playing the best football of his career at midfield.

It has been very pleasing to watch Offaly play football and they are a genuinely exciting team. It would be a tragedy for them if it unravelled now and all their good work was undone with a horrific display.

You would imagine that management will get things spot on this week, that their heads will be in the right place and that they are playing too well for this to happen but Offaly will be under no illusions about Clare's potential to hurt them.

Clare have won their last three meetings. Nine points was the margin in their championship tussle in 2022 while Offaly somehow conspired to throw away two points when losing by a point in the league in Tullamore last year.

That was a traumatic defeat for Offaly, who coughed up a big lead and then missed a last gasp penalty to win it while Clare have punched at a slightly higher level than them in recent years. Offaly look to be in the process of turning a corner. No definite announcements can be made yet but they are in a way better place than anyone anticipated at the start of the league when a relegation dogfight looked more likely than a promotion charge.

They now find themselves one game away from going up to Division 2 and with the odds firmly in their favour. It really should happen but they have to go out and do it, cope with the pressure and inevitable nerves. The bottom line, though, is this: If Offaly do lose to Clare or any division 3 team by 11 points, you really have no business in division 2.