Every Welsh side's state of play as play-off race heats up ahead of Judgement Day
Wales' four professional clubs face an uphill battle
The race to reach the United Rugby Championship play-offs is approaching its end point, with three of Wales' professional clubs still in contention.
Following the Ospreys' 20-18 EPCR Challenge Cup defeat to Lyon last weekend, Wales' interest in Europe is at an end for yet another season. Judgement Day at the Principality Stadium this Saturday, where Cardiff take on the Ospreys and the Scarlets face the Dragons, takes on extra significance as far as the URC play-offs are concerned.
Here is the state of play heading into the final block of the regular URC season.
Cardiff
Cardiff are currently in ninth place in the URC table, just one position off the play-offs. Wales' capital city club are level on points with eighth place Edinburgh but are behind on points difference. Sign up to Inside Welsh rugby on Substack to get exclusive news stories and insight from behind the scenes in Welsh rugby.
On paper, Cardiff looked well placed to reach the play-offs but they face a difficult run in. They simply have to overcome the Ospreys at Judgement Day ahead of facing an in-form Munster outfit at the Arms Park. They then finish the season with a trip to South Africa, where they will take on the Bulls and the Stormers.
They need two wins at a bare minimum if they are to stand a chance of reaching the last eight. Matt Sherratt's side have played some attractive running rugby this season and have a dangerous backline while they also possess a strong backrow.
Back-rower James Botham has been outstanding all season while Taulupe Faletau played very well out in Connacht last week. Second-row Teddy Williams has also been impressive in recent months and has become a key player for the Welsh club.
While Cardiff have some firepower behind the scrum, they lack ball carriers capable of making significant post-contact metres in the front-five. With regards to potentially reaching the play-offs, it will be interesting to see how much the club's recent off field situation will affect the players.
Cardiff entered administration last week which prompted the Welsh Rugby Union to issue an emergency takeover of the club. Such uncertainty is bound to have some sort of an effect on the players between now and the end of the season.
Dragons RFC
It has been another very poor season for the Dragons. They have only won twice all season and are rooted to the bottom of the URC, 18 points off 15th place Zebre Parma. It's safe to say their play-off hopes have been over for months and the only thing left to play for is pride.
There have been some positive individual performances from the likes of young hooker Brodie Coghlan, loosehead prop Dylan Kelleher-Griffiths, full-back Huw Anderson and centre Joe Westwood, who have all been a ray of sunshine in yet another depressing season at Rodney Parade which included the club parting ways with Dai Flanagan.
To be fair the Dragons - who have an ambitious new ownership group - have been busy strengthening the squad ahead of the 2025/26 season. They have already recruited Wales internationals Thomas Young, Wyn Jones, Seb Davies and Dillon Lewis, although backrower Taine Basham will be joining Cardiff.
Filo Tiatia is also set to recruit South African outside-half Tinus de Beer from Cardiff while tighthead prop Robert Hunt is expected to come on board from the Cheetahs. On top of this they have added highly-rated Wales U20s captain Harry Beddall to the squad while tighthead prop Codi Purnell is returning to Wales from Bath and hooker James Talamai has signed from Saracens.
The Dragons also claim they will have the best balance sheet of all four of Wales' professional clubs next season and are also on the lookout for a marquee player. The fact that former coach Paul Turner will be focusing solely on the Dragons next season is also a massive boost for the club.
But it will take some effort to turn the Dragons around especially given the funding in the new Professional Rugby Agreement is still not going to be high enough to allow Wales' professional clubs to truly compete with the best club sides in the URC and Europe, while it is debatable whether there is enough high end professional level players to service four strong sides.
But Dragons fans will be cautious about getting carried away because the majority of them have witnessed enough false dawns to fill a book.
Ospreys
The Ospreys endured a difficult start to the season after announcing Toby Booth would be vacating his position as head coach at the end of this current campaign. But the Ospreys struggled for consistency in the early batch of fixtures and Booth left his role early with former Wales wing Mark Jones stepping up to the big seat.
Performances have improved since Jones stepped up with notable victories away to French club Pau, a thrashing of Benetton, a stunning victory away at Glasgow and a dominant win over arch rivals the Scarlets in the Challenge Cup round of 16. But the Ospreys had targeted the Challenge Cup and a narrow 20-18 defeat to Lyon at the Swansea.com Stadium in the quarter-finals was a major setback.
The Ospreys are still alive in the URC but do face an uphill task of making the play-offs, although last season they were given a 2% chance of finishing in the last eight on the final weekend of the season. They defied the odds to prove everyone wrong then and will need a never say die attitude this time.
The Ospreys are currently 12th in the table, three points off eighth place. A victory over Cardiff at Judgement Day will be vital to their hopes but they'll have to do it the hard way with Justin Tipuric, Adam Beard and Rhys Davies set to be absent due to injuries picked up against Lyon.
They then host the Dragons in Swansea which should yield maximum points for Jones' side but they finish the season with a difficult tour of South Africa to face the Sharks and the Lions. The Ospreys won in South Africa twice last season beating the Lions in the Challenge Cup and the Stormers in the URC so they are more than capable. Join WalesOnline Rugby's WhatsApp Channel here to get the breaking news sent straight to your phone for free
What the Ospreys possess which the other Welsh clubs don't is a pack of forwards which can compete with the stronger sides in this competition. In France, there is a saying "no scrum, no win" and this is also something the Ospreys have in their armoury with a strong front-row of Gareth Thomas, Dewi Lake and Tom Botha.
They also have outstanding Wales captain Jac Morgan in their side along with in-form duo Dan Edwards and Keiran Williams. Off the field, the Ospreys' main focus is moving from the Swansea.com Stadium to a redeveloped St Helen's which they intend to do by Christmas.
They hope this will improve crowds while also allowing them to generate non-matchday income. Off the field they are busy strengthening their squad and are set to sign former Wales back-rower Ross Moriarty and Queensland Reds captain Ryan Smith, although Adam Beard is expected to join Montpellier.
Scarlets
The Scarlets remain in contention for the URC play-offs and reside in 11th place, three points away from where they need to be. Realistically claiming maximum points against the Dragons at Judgement Day is a necessity because they face a brutal final three fixtures of the regular season.
Leinster are the visitors to Parc y Scarlets on April 26 before they too finish off with the thankless task of negotiating a tour of South Africa where they will face the Lions and the Sharks. As head coach Dwayne Peel recently said, they realistically need to win at least two, if not three, of their final four fixtures to stand a chance of making the play-offs.
If they fall short, this will go down as a season of missed opportunities for the west Walians. The Scarlets recruited heavily up-front in the off-season - bringing on board South African hooker Marnus van der Merwe, Australian lock Max Douglas, Wales tighthead Henry Thomas, Australian prop Archer Holz and loosehead Alec Hepburn from Exeter Chiefs.
This has made their pack more competitive but not dominant. The Scarlets have lost a handful of games by just the one score and will look back on defeats to Connacht, the Ospreys, Glasgow and Ulster as games they could have and probably should have won.
The pack still needs to be strengthened further but the Scarlets have been undone by some poor game management and the loss of Sam Costelow to injury has really hampered them. Ioan Lloyd is a very talented footballer but the 24-year-old has struggled to control games at outside-half and has been far too inconsistent.
The Scarlets have recruited Wales international Joe Hawkins from Exeter Chiefs ahead of the 2025/26 season with the intention of selecting him at outside-half. Hawkins is another talented footballer but the majority of his rugby has been played at centre and it remains to be seen whether he has the game management to run a game from the number 10 jersey at professional level.
The west Walians are also working hard behind the scenes to sign a tighthead lock to replace Alex Craig who is off to Glasgow and a backrower. Peel will hope to bring through some of the club's best age grade players with the likes of outside-half Carwyn Leggatt-Jones, back-three speedster Iori Badham, second-row Will Evans and backrower Dom Kossuth tipped for big futures.
The Scarlets have a talented backline which includes the likes of Macs Page, Eddie James, Ellis Mee, Blair Murray, Tom Rogers and Joe Roberts. But the challenge facing Peel is building a strong pack which can compete with the stronger sides and fixing their game management issues. Get the latest breaking Welsh rugby news stories sent straight to your inbox with our FREE daily newsletter. Sign up here.