CLEVELAND, Ohio — The NFL draft has always been a cross between an inexact science and an unforgiving night at the casino.
Even the all-time great general managers have had their fair share of big misses in the draft.
But this era of analytics is trying to solve what at times seems impossible: cracking the code of the NFL draft.
In this 3-part series, we’ll look at three different analytic numbers that translate into NFL success, pick out examples from recent years and how it can apply to the Browns.
We wrap up our series by looking at the one athletic testing standard that is almost a guarantee of an offensive lineman being a very good NFL player.
In case you missed it, check out the first two parts of this series.
- The statistic that can help find star running backs: Hacking the NFL draft
- The position that almost demands a great 40-yard dash for success: Hacking the NFL draft
More Cleveland Browns coverage
The numbers to know
One of the more interesting days at the NFL Combine is when the offensive linemen work on the field. They will run the 40-yard dash, even though you’ll rarely see linemen run 40 yards on any particular play.
While that 10-yard split is something to watch, there’s a drill most fans don’t see or pay attention to that almost guarantees that an offensive lineman is going to be a high-end starter.
That is the 20-yard short shuttle.
Underdog Fantasy’s Josh Norris found the biggest cheat code to date of the NFL draft years ago when he discovered that most linemen who run the short shuttle in 4.47 seconds or faster at the NFL Combine become a quality starter.
36 different linemen hit the threshold since 2010 including six first-round picks. 31 were drafted and of the 36 in total, only five have never started a game. In fact, only two have yet to play an NFL game.
Who fits the mold?
Look through the list and you’ll see a who’s who of offensive linemen from the last 15 years.
The Browns hit on one of these linemen back in 2014 when they drafted Joel Bitonio in the second round. Bitonio, who ran the short shuttle in 4.41, has started all 161 games he’s played in for the past 11 seasons.
2013’s first overall pick Eric Fisher also hit the 4.44 mark, and he started 139 of a possible 144 games.
That number has also produced its fair share of draft steals. Perhaps no one stands out more than Jason Kelce. He was a sixth-round pick in 2011 after his 4.14 short shuttle, and he became one of the most decorated centers in NFL history and appears destined for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Six different linemen broke the 4.47 threshold in the 2024 draft class. Among them was 49ers third-round pick Dominick Puni (4.40), who started all 17 games as a rookie. Steelers fourth-round pick Mason McCormick started Pittsburgh’s final 14 games of the regular season.
So if you’re looking for an offensive line starter in the draft, the 4.47 threshold appears to be a safe bet of finding one.
What does it mean for the Browns in 2025?
The bad news for the Browns in this draft is that no offensive linemen in this class ran the short shuttle in 4.47 seconds or fewer.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t good offensive linemen to draft because there always are. The good news for them is that the offensive line isn’t a truly dire need for the Browns head into the draft.
It’s a need in the sense that teams should always draft an offensive lineman every year regardless of how good they are up front.
One of the offensive tackles who got extremely close to the 4.47 threshold is Kansas offensive tackle Logan Brown (4.51). Brown, a likely Day 3 pick, was a former five-star prospect who played just 38 games and started 14 between stints at Wisconsin and Kansas. He was dismissed from Wisconsin in 2022, and injuries throughout his career also limited his number of game appearances.
Texas Tech’s Caleb Rogers just fell shy of the threshold as well, running the short shuttle in 4.49 at the NFL Combine. He started in four different positions for the Red Raiders, including 35 games at right tackle and 16 at left tackle. He could certainly play tackle in the NFL although there are some experts who think he could kick inside to guard.
Several other highly regarded interior offensive line prospects came close as well to the barrier including potential first-round pick Grey Zabel from North Dakota State (4.60), Georgia’s Jared Wilson (4.56) and Boston College’s Drew Kendall (4.51).
While this class doesn’t have a player who broke the 4.47 barrier, there are enough good movers in this group of linemen for plenty to have great NFL careers.
It’s worth noting as well that several of the top linemen in this class including LSU’s Will Campbell, Missouri’s Armand Membou and Oregon’s Josh Conerly Jr. opted not to run the short shuttle among their athletic testing at the NFL Combine.