One of the most bizarre streaks in NFL history finally could come to an end this week.
The New Orleans Saints might finally select a quarterback in the first round of the draft, ending the club’s mind-boggling 54-year drought.
The Saints are expected to select a quarterback high in this draft, perhaps as early as Round 1, but it will be a surprise if they pull the trigger at No. 9. It’s more likely they trade back into the bottom of Round 1 or top of Round 2 to get their guy.
Plain and simple, the value isn’t there to take a quarterback in the top 10 this year. The quarterbacks in this class are graded as second- and third-round talents. The lone exception is Cam Ward, whom Tennessee is set to select with the No. 1 overall pick.
At No. 9, the Saints are a smart bet to address other needs, and there are plenty for a team coming off a 5-12 season. The belief is the Saints will select either a top lineman or best player available with their first pick. Doing so would adhere to a longstanding organizational philosophy: Big men with elite athleticism are extremely rare, and to acquire them requires a premium cost.
Since 2018, the Saints have drafted an offensive or defensive lineman with six of their seven first-round picks, the lone exception being receiver Chris Olave in 2021. Since 2002, the Saints have used an NFL-high 15 first-round draft picks on offensive and defensive linemen.
As such, look for the Saints to address their needs in the trenches at No. 9. The exception would be if an elite, blue-chip talent such as running back Ashton Jeanty or tight end Tyler Warren fell to No. 9.
Having taken the best lineman or player available at No. 9, the Saints can turn their attention to finding what they hope is their quarterback of the future.
This is where the Saints’ draft should start to get interesting, because they won’t be alone in their pursuit of a quarterback. Three other teams — the Steelers, Browns and Giants — also are in the quarterback market, and they have selections from pick Nos. 21-34.
Behind Ward, the highest-rated quarterbacks on most teams’ draft boards are Shedeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart, Jalen Milroe and Tyler Shough. The Saints have been linked to each of them.
Word in NFL circles is the Saints are highest on Dart and Shough, and not necessarily in that order. They have done extensive research on both.
If the Saints are “hot and heavy" for either of them, as one NFL executive told ESPN’s Adam Schefter this week, they might just have to go get him, because they face a potential logistical problem in Round 2. At No. 40, they sit behind the Browns and Giants at Nos. 33 and 34, respectively. If they stand pat, they’ll have to hope the Browns and Giants bypass their guy at the top of the second round.
The Saints’ pre-draft intel on the plans of the Steelers, Browns and Giants likely will dictate the team’s quarterback strategy.
If the intel reveals a trade isn’t in the cards or will be too expensive, then the Saints probably will stand pat and wait for their selection at No. 40. If the Saints learn their QB-needy rivals are not interested in their top-rated QB, then they can also afford to sit at 40 and wait it out.
But history shows they'll try to be aggressive. If so, they'll need to leapfrog the Browns and Giants by trading into the bottom of Round 1, where they could have multiple trade options with teams already set at quarterback.
Minnesota, which selected J.J. McCarthy in the first round a year ago and has just two picks in the first four rounds, might be a target at No. 24. Likewise, the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills, who sit at Nos. 29 and 30, lack third-round picks.
The reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles also could be in play at No. 32. Saints general manager Mickey Loomis has a well-documented history of making deals with Philadelphia GM Howie Roseman.
Making such a bold move would be in character for Loomis. He has traded up during the draft 20 times since 2011.
Loomis also has shown a predilection to support his head coaches by working to procure a quarterback for them early in their tenures. He collaborated with Sean Payton to land Drew Brees in 2006 free agency, and he aggressively recruited Deshaun Watson and Derek Carr for Dennis Allen.
It’ll be surprising if Loomis doesn’t do likewise for Moore.
A trade likely will cost them draft capital, and this is where they might benefit from the deal they made with Washington last season. One or more of the third-, fourth- and sixth-round draft picks acquired from the Commanders in exchange for cornerback Marshon Lattimore could be used as trade chips to help them land their quarterback of the future.
With Carr reportedly injured and entering what is likely the final year of his tenure in New Orleans, finding a quarterback of the future is critically important for the franchise.
We'll learn just how important later this week.