Which running back should the Broncos draft? DRAFTIQ and RAS for running backs

While I looked at some data regarding drafting a good and durable RB a few weeks back, I didn’t go into the same depth that I did with tight ends, tackles and IOL guys. So I figured that I would do that since draft week is upon us and most think that the Broncos will be using at least one early pick on a running back.

For those who haven’t looked at the other parts of this series, the NFL and AWS recently launched a draft score for all players in the draft based on their “athleticism” and their “production”. Here is a very interesting discussion of it. TLDR - it’s complicated, but it’s better than previous college player draft grades.

So let’s focus on the running backs since the Broncos need an upgrade there as Javonte Williams was one the worst primary backs in the NFL last season despite having a great OL. The correlation for all 403 running backs between production and draft score is 0.76. That is quite strong whereas the correlation between athleticism and draft score was only 0.436. In other words, the draft score is more about how well you produced in college and less about how well you did at the combine.

Being the nerd that I am, I also pulled all the All-time RAS data from Kent Lee Platte for RBs and created a plot of Athleticism vs RAS. That is below. I was able to find RAS and ATH for 338 RBs (2003-2025).

The R squared for this lower than every other position I have looked at so far. Zooming in on the elite corner you get this with name call-outs. Plenty of these were really good NFL RBs, but plenty were total failures in the NFL (if they even ever made a team).

The six guys in red are all available in the draft this year. Their draft scores are all over the place though.

The table above shows the 23 RBs who got a draft score of 87 or above (2003 to present). In this draft only Ashton Jeanty and Cam Skattebo are on the list. Treyveon Henderson just missed the cut with a draft score of 86 - due mostly to his limited production (83) while at OSU. This was a result of sharing the load with another primary RB (they were both RB1).

Let’s look now at some of the guys who had low draft scores (70 or below) who have been good NFL RBs and then some of the busts with high draft scores.

The “Overacheivers”

There are 107 RBs with a draft score of 70 or lower. Six of them are in this draft. So of the 101 I pulled the best in terms of NFL careers. The table is below.

I count 13 successes: Jerome Ford, Kyren Williams, Devonta Freeman, Justin Forsett, James Conner, Rex Burkhead, Bilal Powell, Dameon Pierce, Tony Pollard, Mike Bell, Rico Dowdle, Isaiah Crowell, and Brandon Jacobs. While few, if any, were elite NFL RBs, they were or are at least average. They all also had production scores of 77 or worse. Conner got the 77. In fact of the sub-70 draft score RBs, only Jonathan Dwyer (78) had a higher production score.

From the data set the odds of finding a winner are fairly low 13 out of 107 is 12%, but for day 3 picks that is a decent success rate. Sadly, many of these RBs were day 1 or day 2 picks.

The Busts

Of the 21 guys who got a draft score of 87 or better, I only count four busts: Trent Richardson, LaMichael James, Tre Mason, and Garett Wolfe. While some might call Leonard Fournette a bust since he was the 4th overall pick, he did finish his NFL career with almost 7000 yards from scrimmage. So I don’t consider him a bust, but you may. 17 “wins” out of 21 picks is a pretty good success rate, but remember almost all were considered can’t miss RBs when they were picked. Almost all were drafted fairly highly (see below).

It would appear now that Ashton Jeanty is going to be a top 10 pick - possibly a top 3 pick. So he is out for the Broncos (unless we sacrifice the whole draft to get him), but of the rest of the 2025 RBs (DRAFTIQ data shown below), which one (or two) do you want the Broncos to get? CBS Sports has a very different view than NFL/AWS with Skattebo ranked as the 11th best RB in the draft, instead of the 2nd.

NFL/AWS DraftIQ - sorted by draft score

CBS Sports - sorted by their ranking

Does it make sense to take a super-athletic guy like Donovan Edwards on day 3 even though he was not very “productive” while at Michigan? Or would you rather the Broncos target a bruiser who has shown he can be the bellcow back like Ollie Gordon? Gordon had more touches in two seasons than Edwards had in three. It’s highly possible that both could be available on day 3. Edwards could also go undrafted. CBS has him as the 24th ranked RB. LeQuint Allen, from Syracuse, is the second least productive RB in this draft and he still was a much bigger cog in the Orange offense in his two seasons as a starter than Edwards ever was in Ann Arbor.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Chargers take Edwards on day 3 to reunite him with Harbaugh. Edwards was always RB2 behind Blake Corum (83rd pick in 2024) until last season when he was RB2 to Kalel Mullings, who is a converted linebacker, where he played in his first three seasons in Ann Arbor.

Or do you want the Broncos to get the speedy Bhayshul Tuten whose blazing 4.32 40 was one of the fastest for a RB at the combine ever. Of course his 40.5” vertical is also quite impressive. There are two other RBs in this draft that ran sub 4.4 - Jaydon Blue from Texas and Brashard Smith from SMU (4.38 and 4.39), so the Broncos could get a “home-run threat” even if they miss on Tuten.

This draft is deep with RB talent. Let’s just hope the Broncos get a RB who is more like Clinton Portis or Terrell Davis and less like Knowshon Moreno or Monte Ball.