By the grace of the football gods, we made it.
The Patriots will make a first-round pick tonight, ending months of speculation about what they will do at No. 4 overall. Mike Vrabel and Co. are scheduled to make eight more picks Friday and Saturday.
For each of their nine picks, here are nine Patriots thoughts on the draft ahead:
1. Will Campbell will be the pick
The Patriots sorely need a left tackle. Will Campbell started at left tackle for three seasons in college football’s toughest conference. He’s exceptionally athletic for his position, tough, durable, a two-time captain and tailor-made culture fit for what Vrabel wants to rebuild in New England.
That’s what this pick is about.
No, Campbell is not the caliber of prospect typically found at No. 4 overall. As far as whether he’s worth the pick, the Patriots’ goal is not to justify his selection 10 years from now or to ghosts of drafts gone by. It’s to pick the best player for them every time they are on the clock.
The Pats can only pick from the prospects in front of them, and however you rank this year’s class, Campbell is near the top.
2. I wouldn’t pick Campbell
Campbell does come with concerns: the shortest wingspan of any offensive tackle to swing through the scouting combine since 2011; an allowed pressure higher than other tackles in this class; worse tape versus the SEC’s best defensive lines (South Carolina and Texas A&M) compared to another top-10 tackle, Missouri’s Armand Membou.
I am not sold on Campbell’s long-term viability at tackle, period. Could he prove me wrong? Absolutely. For now, I prefer Membou for the Patriots, even if there’s a projection involved moving him from right to left tackle.
But when the Patriots select Campbell – which by all accounts is coming sometime around 8:30-45 tonight – I will understand to a degree. Their left tackle situation may be the most glaring positional need in the entire NFL, and many believe Campbell is good enough to fill that hole for a decade, including members of the Patriots’ brain trust.
3. If the Pats trade back …
Look at Las Vegas.
The Raiders are the most common landing spot for Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty in recent mock drafts, though insiders now claim Jacksonville, picking one spot ahead of Vegas at No. 5, is seeking an offensive player. That means Jeanty. If true, the Jaguars’ interest is the Patriots’ only hope of trading back, adding extra draft capital and remaining in the top 10, where they can still nab Campbell or Membou.
For a team that once believed it could “control the draft” if they signed enough free-agent targets, the Patriots could settle for a deal with Vegas that trade value charts dictate should net them an extra third-round pick.
4. Day 2 surprise?
Don’t forget about the center position.
The Patriots whiffed on their top free-agent targets here and only signed projected starter Garrett Bradbury for $3.5 million guaranteed. Bradbury is now chiefly responsible for keeping Maye protected from interior pressure, and he ranked among the worst pass-protecting centers in football last year; hence, his release from Minnesota.
The Patriots could either select a center with their latter third-round pick at 77th overall or move up late Friday night using their fourth-rounder at No. 106.
5. Trade Kayshon Boutte
No problems here with reports the Patriots are willing to part with Boutte.
Barring a rookie breakout, the Patriots’ top three receivers this season should be Stefon Diggs, DeMario Douglas and one of Kendrick Bourne or Mack Hollins. That leaves Boutte, a rising third-year player without an elite trait and zero special teams value, fighting for the No. 4 job.
I have no problem with a new regime parting with that type of player, especially with Ja’Lynn Polk, Javon Baker and, most likely, a mid-round draft pick waiting in the wings. The game-breaking talent Boutte flashed five years ago as a record-setting freshman for LSU has never resurfaced to the same level.
Flip him for a Day 3 pick, and call it a day.
6. My guys, offense edition
The following prospects are all potential Patriots, and I might love them more than the front office does.
Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson; Virginia Tech running back Bhayshul Tuten; Colorado State wide receiver Tory Horton; Stanford WR Elic Ayomanor; Miami tight end Elijah Arroyo; Oregon offensive tackle Josh Conerly Jr.; Ohio State offensive lineman Donovan Jackson.
7. My guys, defensive edition
Boston College edge defender Donovan Ezeiruaku; Texas edge defender Barryn Sorrell; Ohio State edge defender Jack Sawyer; Nebraska defensive lineman Ty Robinson; Iowa State cornerback Darien Porter, Cal cornerback Nohl Williams; Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts.
8. Day 3 name to remember
UCF cornerback Mac McWilliams.
The Patriots’ interest in McWilliams dates back to the Senior Bowl and combine. He plays with the demeanor Vrabel seeks in all of his players, relentless and physical. McWilliams projects as a fourth- or fifth-round pick who should play nickelback at the next level. He’s a former captain and return man in college.
9. Can Eliot Wolf seal the deal?
The Patriots reportedly tried and failed to trade back into the first round last year.
Since then, they’ve whiffed on multiple top free-agent targets and other trades.
Wolf no longer appears to be the team’s top decision-maker, but multiple front-office members will be on the phone exploring trades throughout the draft; a three-day exercise in evaluation and deal-making. Where the Patriots failed last year, they cannot fail again, especially if they want to land multiple starters and surprise this season.
