Trump’s Middle East Mission Is All About – Oil, Ceasefire Talks, And Nuclear Gambits In The Gulf. Will Trump’s Gamble Pay Off?

U.S. President Donald Trump is set to embark on a diplomatic tour of the Middle East on May 13, with official visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. The trip promises to be a headline-making affair, with critical issues like the Israel-Gaza ceasefire, oil diplomacy, trade negotiations, and nuclear ambitions dominating the agenda.

Trump’s return to the global stage comes at a time of heightened geopolitical volatility. From the Israel-Hamas conflict to the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Persian Gulf (referred to increasingly in some U.S. circles as the “Arabian Gulf”) has become a central stage for power politics.

“This visit will likely generate a flurry of announcements across multiple sectors,” said Monica Malik, Chief Economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. Among the anticipated developments is the possible rollback of Trump-era tariffs on aluminum and steel, currently at 10%, which could benefit Gulf metal exporters, albeit marginally in terms of their overall GDP contribution.

Trump has long maintained close ties with Gulf monarchies, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, where his family maintains business interests and planned real estate ventures. These personal relationships could provide leverage in brokering fresh trade and investment agreements, though critics continue to raise questions about potential conflicts of interest, a charge the Trump family strongly denies.

Notably, Trump’s first overseas trip during his presidency was also to Saudi Arabia. Now, the kingdom finds itself once again in a critical role, not just in mediating the Gaza conflict but also as a proposed host for talks to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Meanwhile, Qatar remains instrumental in facilitating dialogue between Israel and Hamas, particularly on ceasefires and the release of hostages.

Wall Street Meets Riyadh On AI, Investment, and Nuclear Power 

As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares for his high-profile Middle East tour, Wall Street and Silicon Valley’s elite are converging on Riyadh for a landmark Saudi-U.S. investment forum on May 13. The event is poised to showcase America’s corporate and tech heavyweights, with attendees including BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Palantir’s Alex Karp, and top executives from Citigroup, IBM, Qualcomm, Alphabet, and Franklin Templeton. Also in attendance will be David Sacks, the White House’s AI and cryptocurrency advisor.

“We expect a wave of investment announcements,” said Monica Malik, Chief Economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. “It’s a two-way street, while the UAE has already committed funds to the U.S. in sectors like AI, energy, and aluminum, there’s also strong appetite among American firms to ramp up investments in the Gulf.”

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been pouring billions into building AI infrastructure, aiming to establish themselves as global AI powerhouses. But one critical hurdle has remained: access to the most advanced U.S. semiconductor technology. Due to national security concerns, Washington has so far restricted exports of top-tier AI chips, even to allied nations. That, however, may be about to change.

On Wednesday, the Trump administration unveiled plans to scrap the Biden-era “AI diffusion rule,” which had imposed stringent controls on AI chip exports. The rule will be replaced by what officials call “a much simpler framework to unleash American innovation and secure U.S. AI leadership.” Specifics of the new policy remain under wraps.

Gulf tech players are already adjusting. G42, a leading AI company based in the UAE, has taken proactive steps to align with U.S. regulatory expectations, including cutting ties with Chinese entities and deepening its partnership with Microsoft, which invested $1.5 billion into G42 last year.

Nuclear Negotiations in Focus

Beyond trade and tech, nuclear energy is quietly gaining traction on the diplomatic agenda. The Trump administration is reportedly engaged in renewed discussions with Iran over its nuclear program, talks that now enjoy tacit backing from Gulf allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE, a notable shift from the staunch opposition seen during the Obama years.

Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia is seeking U.S. support for launching its own civilian nuclear program. Previously, Washington had tied such support to the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations, but recent reports suggest that condition may be relaxed during this visit.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, during a trip to Saudi Arabia in April, hinted at progress. “We are on a pathway to a civil nuclear agreement,” he said, while adding that any formal announcement would come directly from Trump.

With AI, finance, and nuclear ambitions converging, this visit could signal a significant recalibration of U.S.-Gulf relations and reshape the strategic and technological balance in the region.

Israel-Gaza Negotiations, A Contentious Diplomatic Tightrope

One of the most sensitive issues on Donald Trump’s Middle East agenda is the ongoing war in Gaza. The president has pledged to end the conflict but stirred controversy by suggesting that the U.S. could take control of Gaza—referring to the devastated territory as “important real estate.” The remark drew sharp criticism from Arab leaders, who see such comments as tone-deaf to regional sensitivities and sovereignty.

The U.S. has continued to push for a ceasefire, with the latest proposal calling for a 21-day halt to hostilities and the release of a number of hostages. However, Israel recently approved the expansion of its military operations and territorial control within Gaza, complicating diplomatic efforts.

Oil, Sanctions, and Financial Diplomacy

Energy and economic strategy will also dominate the agenda. It was hinted that the Trump administration could explore easing U.S. sanctions on Syria’s new leadership- a move that could carry geopolitical implications across the region. Additionally, speculation is mounting that Trump may formally rebrand the “Persian Gulf” as the “Arabian Gulf” during his trip, a gesture that would likely be welcomed by Gulf Arab states but could inflame tensions with Iran amid ongoing nuclear negotiations.

Oil prices remain a key focus. Trump has historically pressured OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to boost oil production in an effort to lower fuel prices for American consumers. While Riyadh has responded in kind, sustained low oil prices are beginning to bite, impacting Saudi revenues and threatening the financial underpinnings of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious Vision 2030 plans.

“Given where oil prices stand today, Saudi Arabia will likely be looking to secure additional financing or economic support from the U.S.,” said Monica Malik, Chief Economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

Despite Saudi Arabia’s pledge to invest $600 billion in the U.S. during Trump’s term, the kingdom is facing growing fiscal pressure. Massive infrastructure projects, social development goals, and a widening budget deficit have increased the need for external funding and economic partnerships.

The Last Bit,

As the Trump delegation touches down in Riyadh, these intertwined threads of diplomacy, economics, and regional security form a complex backdrop, one that could shape U.S.-Gulf relations going forward.