Guerrero's chat: How could the trade deadline play out for the Cardinals?

Tyler: Is there a scenario in which Gorman is dealt at the deadline instead of Arenado? I’d like to see Arenado end his career in St. Louis, and at this point I wonder if the only thing that’ll help Gorman is a change of scenery… your thoughts?

Guerrero: I just don’t see this as a likely scenario. Nolan Gorman is one of the players the Cardinals were looking to give ample playing time to this season once they put this “reset/transition” year into motion. Even if his struggles persist, I don’t think they’d give up entirely on Gorman to a point where they would trade him at this year’s deadline. The Cardinals set out to get Gorman a sizeable amount of at-bats to see what he can do with that workload, and I’d expect them to allow that plan to play out the way they envisioned it.

Hot to trot: We are contenders for the central div crown. Forget about trading nado and helsley. Act like a team that wants to contend. Send walker and Gorman down and assign a hitting instructor just for them for more intensive help. Bring up saggese/barrero/koperniak who are just as good at fielding and have a chance to be better hitters than Gorman/walker. Why not?

Guerrero: Just to piggyback off the previous response, my answer to the “why not?” would be because of the Cardinals’ intentions this season of giving guys “runway” to see what they can do with a full season’s workload in the majors. Remember, Jordan Walker is in that bucket of guys the Cardinals were going to give every day playing time to, so he can develop in the majors. I think we’ve seen how they are going to work around any struggles, and that is by giving him a few off days that he’ll use to work with the team’s hitting coaches. For the Cardinals, this year was going to be about setting themselves up for the future by seeing what they have with their young core. Obviously they felt they were going to still be competitive, and we’ve seen how they can be. Perhaps that shift a bit later this season if the Cardinals continue to remain in the playoff picture, but the larger goals of setting themselves up for the future could remain intact.

Houston Cards Fan: Do you see mixed messaging in prioritizing development this year and what they're doing with Graceffo by putting him in the bullpen? We heard after spring training that he's a starter and that's what's best for him, but as soon as we get on a winning streak, he's up in the bullpen. Are we chasing a first round flame out at the expense of another young pitcher?

Guerrero: I don’t think we’ve seen mixed messaging with Gordon Graceffo. Yes, he’s been on a starter track and was going to be a starter in Triple-A Memphis, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said there could be a path forward for Graceffo to be in the big-league bullpen down the line. Mozeliak described that scenario in the middle of March on the day the Cardinals announced the Phil Maton signing. What you mentioned about the starter track being “what’s best for him,” I think that was more about what’s best for development in terms of getting him regular innings to work on things, as opposed to keeping him in a minor league bullpen and being limited in workload in that role. Graceffo has had the stuff for a big-league bullpen role, so I don’t think the Cardinals are chasing anything. Rather, they are giving that runway for a young guy to develop into a reliever role. Now, if this was Michael McGreevy the club said was going to the bullpen for a traditional relief role (one or one-plus innings) like Graceffo, then that would be mixed messaging. Like I said, Graceffo was going to be a starter in the minors, but remained an option for a big-league relief role in the majors.

Memphis, TN: I often peruse boxscores from games involving the Cardinals’ minor league affiliates. I recently discovered one Ixan Henderson, who was an eighth round draft pick of the Cardinals just two years ago. He pitched in high A last year and is in AA this year. Only 22 starts in his minor-league career thus far, but it looks like he can pitch fairly deep into games, has more strikeouts than innings pitched, and carries an ERA of 2.23

Guerrero: As you said, Henderson remained steady in the Cardinals’ system since he made his pro debut. He’s also had a few chances for the organization to get a better look at him, as he was in the Arizona Fall League last year and was one of the prospects they had in their early minor league spring camp. He’s been an interesting pitcher to watch. Last year, he produced strong swing-and-miss results with his breaking pitch mix. What we saw in April — a 2.79 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings in Double-A — came as he’s made strides with his sweeper and paired that with his fastball. 

Ken: I bet he’s auditioning for a closers role. Helsley is not going to be here after the trade deadline…

Guerrero: If the Cardinals wind up moving Ryan Helsley at the deadline, then yeah, I also see Graceffo as a guy who could find himself at the back end of that bullpen if there is a job to claim. 

JP in TN: Thanks for chat. I was glad to see the organization commit to "let the kids play". As they are would it be fair to say that Nootbar, Wynn, VScott, Liberatore, and Donovan (whereever he plays) have established themselves as those players who are there now based on results.

Guerrero: Only because it is still pretty early in the year, I would feel like we are jumping to conclusions with a couple of those guys. And my only refrain in doing so is that we haven’t seen the full body of work yet. Coming into this year, I felt like we already knew who Brendan Donovan is in the majors, with that being an excellent defender who will hit for average and will put the ball in play consistently. For Lars Nootbaar, I think it's fair to say health has been the bigger question. So far, he’s remained on the field and produced for his club. And with Masyn Winn, we saw what he did with a full season last year, so we had an idea of what he could be, and I think we’re seeing him return to that form over the last few weeks. With Victor Scott II and Matthew Liberatore, I think what we’ve seen from both has been impressive and a continuation of what they respectively did in spring training to push for the jobs they have now. My only hesitation in saying they’ve established themselves is that we haven’t seen a full season of Scott in the majors and haven’t seen Liberatore as a starter across a full major league season.

Ken: Hi Daniel. The team looks good right now. My concern is Jordan Walker. The strides he has made in right field are impressive. He looks so lost at the plate. Yesterday I saw him take a couple first pitches down the middle so he’s already in the hole. He is way too young and talented to give up on. I hope someone in the organization can get him to figure it out….

Guerrero: What Walker has done to improve on defense is a positive development. But, as you mentioned, his offensive woes have been too hard to ignore. His chase and whiff percentages are both above 34%. Breaking pitches continue to trouble him. I think it was mentioned earlier in this chat, but Cardinals hitting coaches have continued to work with Walker to make those improvements. He is one of those key players the Cardinals want to give “runway” to, and this stretch was going to be part of that process. You have to let him figure it out at the majors.

Tbird728: All the talk about runway for young players. Why is Thomas Saggese not given any runway. Hit .341/.364/.512/.876 with Cards in 14 games and is hitting .284/.354/.487/.841 with Memphis. Gorman and Walker look totally lost and are dragging the team down. It just looks like they're never going to get it.

Guerrero: I think there is more urgency to see what they have in Walker and Gorman since they have had some major league time. I think you want to see that play out over the course of a season without the worries of being sent down. With Saggese, I understand how it’s hard to justify sending a guy down or benching a guy who was hitting well in the majors. I think a tough part of promising runway is ensuring there’s enough of it to go around. It just didn’t seem like that for Saggese, who should be playing every day regardless of where he goes.

Ryan: Saggese has only played SS or 3rd since being sent back down. Can I read into this? Also, if the offseason stated goal was to reduce payroll, and I quote, " priority 1,2 and 3 ", Arenado would still be on the market as of today and this summer. What I find funny is if they keep winning enough for him to continue to use his no trade clause. Then what?

Guerrero: I wouldn’t look into that too much. Saggese has bounced around defensively, so I imagine he’d do the same. As far as what happens if Arenado used his no-trade clause to remain a Cardinal if a deal was presented this season, that would be… something. I guess my simple answer is he remains a Cardinal, and they keep playing as is. That doesn’t help lower payroll or open up a lane to give young guys opportunities at the majors. That would just be a reality the Cardinals work with and one that would keep the likely future Hall of Famer around.

JB: Are there any players in the Cardinals' minor league system who have caught your attention with their performance so far?

Guerrero: Ixan Hendersson was mentioned in the chat a little while ago. He is someone who has pitched well and been an intriguing watch. Seeing him go to the fall league last year and then get promoted to Double-A are positive strides when you look at the bigger picture of his stance in the organization. Another performance that has caught my attention is that of Joshua Baez. For those who might need a refresher, Baez is a 21-year-old former second-round pick from the 2021 draft. He has plenty of tools but has yet to put his offense together. A 37.3% strikeout rate last year in High-A led him to be reassigned down the system to Low-A. This year, he’s cut his strikeout rate to 23.5% and taken more walks. He’s slashing .268/.372/.392. Though his power numbers aren’t there, his ability to make contact is a noteworthy development. He’s cut his swinging strike rate from 19.3% in High-A last year to 12.9% while in High-A this year.

Hot to trot: But how far do we go if it becomes a struggle to make or advance in the playoffs?

Guerrero: This scenario is where I think that balancing act comes into play for manager Oliver Marmol and the front office. How do you balance winning now and development? Is placing a struggling young player in that spot to see what they do with the opportunity part of development? I think there could come a time when the Cardinals face a tough decision, but I can’t provide an exact moment of how far does this go if it continues.

Bobo's Pet Monkey: This season is all about giving guys the chance to prove they're part of the team's future core, but what happens after the year is over? If Walker fails to improve or Gorman continues to swing way, is the plan to plug these holes in FA? It's fine not to spend money when you need to know what you have on hand, but once you kind of know the answer, or you become the Rays and Guardians where every season depends on what your farm system can provide.

Guerrero: I’m not sure if free agency would be the immediate pivot, but I think there’d be a “how do we proceed from here?” moment. That’s not to say any of the struggling guys would be flat-out given up on and gone from the organization.

DCG: Daniel: Were the Cardinals pennywise and pound foolish this winter? What I mean is that in their desire to cut payroll, they spent, almost literally, nothing this winter despite some glaring needs in the bullpen. At the same time, they had concerns about attendance. Well, one way to keep fans interested is win. If they had a competent bullpen, they'd be in first place right now. Somewhere between $10-15 million likely gets them two quality arms. If the team is competitive, they recoup that investment and more with fans in the stands. If this team fades because they can't hold leads or keep games close when they go to the pen, the ballpark is going to be a ghost town come August and whatever they may have saved by not investing in relievers will be lost plus more.

Guerrero: This is an interesting question considering all that we knew about the Cardinals heading into this season. Like you said, we knew they wanted to lower payroll, which could have happened if the deals they looked to make with veteran stars had happened. They wanted to give their young players every day looks at the major leagues, which includes the guys in the bullpen, some of whom have struggled in key spots. I think trying to set themselves up for long-term success on the field could have implications in the short term in terms of crowds, because this is all a process. There will be ups and downs. It made sense to avoid those investments in proven bullpen arms because you are, in a way, investing internally with players who you think can provide for you in years to come if they get their chance to grow now. I think hearing Cardinals ownership talk about the ways they were looking to enhance the ballpark experience came across as a way to attract fans, too. I think some of those things were needed to sort of freshen up the gameday experience, but as you said, winning draws crowds. The Cardinals said they’d be competitive while giving guys runway, but you could make a case that any turbulence during that process could make fans disinterested if the struggles make them fall in the standings.

DCG: Your minor league comment made me look up Baez because I remember how high the team was on him. He slugged.500 at Palm Beach (low sample of 50 ABs) last year after the demotion. That's serious pop given what a bad hitter's park that is in terms of power. Love that OBP at Peoria this year. Good stuff. Juan Yepez taught me that you have to have incredible patience with young hitters. The numbers in the minors can be deceiving in terms of development. It looks like Baez is starting to break through. Nice.

Guerrero: One of the things I feel the need to remind even myself of when describing Baez is that he is 21 years old. For comparison, Texas A&M’s Jace LaViolette, one of the top outfield prospects expected to be drafted this summer, is also 21 years old. I’m not comparing Baez to LaViolette in terms of skill and ceiling, but using LaViolette’s age as an example of how young Baez still is. I think prospect fatigue for guys who get into pro ball as early as Baez is a real thing. And like you said, patience is required. Results are too. S,o for Baez to show some positive strides in his fourth full season is a good sign for him and for the organization as it goes through a minor league overhaul.

Hot to trot: I liked jose barrero when he was up. Will we see him again?

Guerrero: Jose Barrero is still up. He's scheduled to start in center field and bat ninth tonight vs. Philly.

Heath: What do you know about Leonardo Bernal and what do you think will eventually happen with the catching situation having him, Crooks, Herrera, and Pages?

Guerrero: I think Bernal has the chance to be a real key piece to the Cardinals' long-term future. Bernal is 21 and in Double-A right now. He’s a switch-hitting catcher with average bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline, plus strong batted ball data in terms of exit velocity. Behind the plate, he has an above-average arm that’s helped him control the run game and made strides in framing. He’s also worked well with his pitching staffs and shown the confidence and leadership qualities you look for in a catcher. I think the wealth of young catchers gives the Cardinals options in the majors of guys who can handle the position as well as the depth needed there.

Brad aka Lars: The new Top 100 MLB prospects list is updated today. Wondering your thoughts on the Cards only having Wetherholt (#20) and Mathews (#40) on the list? We've had several injuries but that's pretty sad to only have highly rated prospects, for instance, Seattle has nine. Yep, that's right, nine.

Guerrero: A few things stand out to me with the Cardinals’ limited representation in the latest Top 100  from MLB Pipeline. The first is the injuries that have hit the Cardinals’ system. Tink Hence opened the year as a Top 100 guy, but he hasn’t pitched this year because of injury, so that knocks him off the list. If I remember correctly, Tekoah Roby was also a Top 100 prospect for other publications (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs), but the injuries in 2023 and 2024 held him back before getting healthy this year. One of the things to also account for is where the Cardinals have drafted in recent years. The No. 7 overall pick last year was their highest draft selection since taking J.D. Drew at five overall in 1998. The Cardinals also didn’t have a second-round pick in 2024 or 2023 because of the Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray deals. That has limited them from taking top draft prospects in early rounds, but a No. 5 overall pick this year will give them a chance to add an impact player there. You mentioned the Mariners and their strong system. Two of those Top 100 guys (Colt Emerson and Jonny Farmelo) were drafted within the first 30 picks of 2023. Three (Lazaro Montes, Felning Celesten, and Michael Arroyo) were players ranked in the top 50 in their respective international signing classes, and the Mariners spent there to get them into their system. The Cardinals haven’t been as aggressive on that front, but have found some intriguing prospects (Yairo Padilla and Rainiel Rodriguez) recently. Overall, I think the latest rankings show where the Cardinals are in terms of farm system strength. There’s a reason they began overhauling their system last winter.

Evan: What do you make of Ivan Herrera's future as a catcher? We haven't seen enough of him behind the plate this year to gauge any improvements he would have been working towards this offseason. Even with his return from injury, he has been relegated to a DH role while Pozo remains on the roster as the backup for Pages. Is this just a means of easing him back into playing time, or could it be a signifier that his future as a big leaguer won't be as a catcher?

Guerrero: I think the return to have Herrera DH and keep Pozo on the bench is more about having protection at that spot if Herrera is DH’ing and as he eases back into catching. How Pozo hit also had a role in keeping him in the majors as a bench bat and backup to Herrera and Pedro Pages. I wouldn’t take this as a sign for the future. The Cardinals want Herrera behind the plate in the long term. Getting his bat in there at DH helps in the short term. 

Brad aka Lars: Hi Daniel. Thanks for the chat. Suddenly we're 2 months out from the MLB Draft. Looks like Cards will have their pick of top rated SS's (1 college and several HS possibilities), or a high ceiling starter. Which direction do you see them going? We won't hold you to it, just give us your instinctual pick.

Guerrero: Hi Brad aka Lars, the draft really is quickly approaching us. I think the Cardinals could wind up taking one of the high-ceiling lefties you alluded to. Jamie Arnold from Florida State seems like an option that’d be available to the Cardinals at No. 5. Though, if Ethan Holliday slid far enough, I’d imagine the Cardinals would pounce on taking him.

South City Steve: The Cardinals either buy big or sell big at the deadline, right? There's no "we'll just add a loogy and a bench bat" sort of hold-the-line scenario is there? Because that would be beyond stupid.

Guerrero: If you mean big as in big, big, I just don’t see the Cardinals doing that. Buying big would mean selling off some key pieces to their farm, and I just don’t see that happening. With a new regime set to take over after this year, I don’t think Mozeliak would make any major deals that would deplete the farm system.

Bryan: With ivan Herrera bat, why not teach him to play right field. He can play 150 games in a combo role in right, catch and DH.

Guerrero: I hope this doesn’t sound snarky, but simply put, he’s a catcher and that’s where he’s always played and is expected to continue playing.

pugger: Hey Daniel! If the Cardinals are close to 1st place near the trade deadline, what do they do? Do you agree they need to win the division to get into the playoffs? Wildcard will come from West & East divisions, right? I stay stay the course, build for the future. Matz and Helsley if they keep plitching well could fetch some solid prospects, and Fedde too. Thoughts? Thanks DG!!

Guerrero: This would be a tough spot to be in, despite it being a good spot to be in. If the Cardinals were within reach of first place in the NL Central, maybe there’s a best of both worlds scenario where they make moves to unload some players on expiring contracts to get prospects in return, but also keep other pieces intact to try and remain in contention. It would be quite the pivot if the Cardinals decided not to sell off players that could help strengthen their farm system.

pugger: I hear you Daniel, but the reality is Herrera may not be able to control the running game.. Like, ever. Why put him thru that if he's going to throw out 5 runners a year? He's got a great bat, get him in the lineup, isn't that the priority?

Guerrero: I also get where you’re coming from, but think the Cardinals are going to continue keeping him at catcher down the line. I also wouldn’t think right field would be the option. Naturally, first base would be the move but you also have a key piece of the lineup handling that spot.

Guerrero: Alright, everyone, I think I’ll end the chat there. Thanks for your participation. As always, thanks for continuing to follow our coverage here at STL Today dot com and in the pages of the Post-Dispatch. My P-D teammate (and friend) Derrick Goold will have you fully covered for this upcoming three-game series between the Cardinals and Phillies. Hope you all take care — Daniel Guerrero

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