Eagles are value play against Vikings in NFC championship game

When the Eagles became the first No. 1 seed in NFL history to open the playoffs as an underdog, several Las Vegas oddsmakers said it was an overreaction.

They were right. Philadelphia, a 3-point home underdog to Atlanta, beat the Falcons 15-10 to advance to Sunday’s NFC championship game against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Eagles are 3-point home underdogs again this week, and handicapper Micah Roberts (Sportsline.com) said the line is out of whack again. He likes Philadelphia to cover the spread.

“It’s just a matter of value with the home team,” he said.

After Eagles backup quarterback Nick Foles finished the regular season in ugly fashion — going 23-for-49 for 202 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions in his final five quarters — there was a nine-point drop-off in the point spread from injured starter Carson Wentz to him.

Foles went 23-for-30 for 246 yards and no interceptions in Philadelphia’s divisional playoff win over Atlanta. But the Eagles still will be wearing their dog masks for the second consecutive week.

“After Foles performed well and had a fantastic game in the playoffs against the Falcons, who were playing great defense, there was no adjustment upward,” said Roberts, a former Las Vegas bookmaker. “The line is essentially telling us the Vikings are six points better on a neutral field than the Eagles. That’s just not true.

“We’re talking about the No. 4 defense and a great corps of running backs and a great corps of wide receivers who’ve now had six weeks of practicing with Foles and getting a rapport with him. There are so many positive things.

“They’ll make it simple for him. The Eagles’ defense and running game will be the stars, and Foles will be ultraconservative.”

While Philadelphia is Roberts’ best bet, he also likes the under in both conference championship games, which feature four of the NFL’s top five scoring defenses. The total is 39 in Vikings-Eagles and 45½ in Jaguars-Patriots.

“I’m expecting a low-scoring NFC game similar to last week’s (Eagles-Falcons game). I expect them just to grind it out and each team to wait for the other to make the first mistake,” Roberts said. “I think they’ll be very conservative on both sides. Good defenses always travel well, but the Vikings are a dome team playing outdoors and that’s never a good situation.”

New England allowed an average of 32 points in its first four games this season, but has held opponents to 12.4 ppg in its past 13.

“The Patriots’ defense will mix it up against (Blake) Bortles,” Roberts said. “It just feels like an under. I’m giving lots of respect to the Jaguars defense, too. The only reason they had 42 put on them last week (in a 45-42 win over the Steelers) is the prevent defense.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.