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Why TCU -- not West Virginia -- has the best shot ending Oklahoma's reign atop Big 12

FRISCO - It felt strange to show up for Big 12 media days Monday and not hear anyone talking about the impending demise of the conference. That talk could come roaring back someday, but for now folks seem to be relatively pleased with how things are going.

Commissioner Bob Bowlsby's not the sort of orator who will whip a crowd into a frenzy, but his optimism Monday actually seemed to be rooted in reality. The conference is bringing in plenty of money for its members schools, and as long as the Sooners don't bolt, surely the Big 12 will have a contender for the College Football Playoff.

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"From a competitive standpoint, you have to win," Bowlsby said. "We were 5-3 in the postseason. We had a chance to win a couple more of those. If we had, there would be an even more positive buzz about it coming into this. ...

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"I'm as bullish as I can be about the Big 12."

TCU coach Gary Patterson was amused by a question about the instability of the conference in past years.

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"You should see all the conferences I've been in," said Patterson, alluding to the Frogs' time in the wilderness before finally securing a spot in the Big 12.

The media believes West Virginia is the most serious threat to ending the Sooners' reign as conference champs, according to a preseason poll. But with all due respect to the Heisman candidacy of quarterback Will Grier, I believe the Frogs have the best shot to dethrone OU.

Patterson lost twice to the Sooners last season, and something tells me he's spent a healthy portion of his offseason preparing for what Kyler Murray will bring to the OU offense. It's not like TCU quarterback Shawn Robinson has a lot more experience than Murray, but he saw more meaningful action last season. I think about what Patterson and his staff did with turning Trevone Boykin into one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Robinson has more size than Boykin, and he was a more coveted recruit.

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I get a sense that Patterson and some of the other veteran coaches in the Big 12, like Bill Snyder and Mike Gundy, can't wait to face Sooners coach Lincoln Riley without Baker Mayfield.

Riley stepped into a wonderful situation when Bob Stoops abruptly stepped down as head coach. He had one of the most accomplished and experienced quarterbacks in the country. Now, we're reading stories how NFL coaches are making the trip to Norman to pick Riley's brain. To his credit, he seems a bit embarrassed by those stories and tried to clarify that coaches were mostly interested in his talented players.

I think Riley's one of the brightest young coaches in the country, but he's facing tough odds this season. All we know about Murray is that he has tremendous speed and covers a lot of ground in center field. There's not much you can point to from his time in Aggieland to suggest he's on the verge of stardom. I can't imagine a more thankless task than following Mayfield. (Just think about all the Longhorn quarterbacks who've followed Colt McCoy over the years).

The Sooners have plenty of talent at running back and wide receiver, but Murray will have to make some plays on his own. Mayfield was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the history of college football. I don't anticipate accuracy being a huge strength for Murray, although he will be dangerous as an open-field runner.

The Sooners will be extremely young on the defensive side of the ball, which will put even more pressure on Murray. Riley will have to be at his creative best. The good news for Sooners fans is that his instant success hasn't made him complacent.

Asked about not being able to slow down Georgia in the second half of the CFP semifinal, Riley said the Sooners had to recruit better on that side of the football. He said OU has placed a "special emphasis" on identifying those players and cited some "rock stars" on his defensive coaching staff.

Someone asked Bowlsby whether he's worried about the Big 12 being "top heavy" with OU having been the only team to advance to the playoffs. He could've mentioned how close the Frogs and Bears came in the first CFP, but that's not a good topic for him.

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I don't know if the Frogs have the sort of team that will end up in the playoff, but this is the season they will take down the Sooners. And maybe Riley won't have to spend quite as much time with those NFL types next spring.

Twitter:  @mattmosley